A Starting Point

For the first time since about the 2004 season the Braves go into the season with a settled and reliable starting rotation that will be loaded with the right balance of experience and youth. I’m just going to get straight into the meat of this rotation with the two youthful (hopefully) aces.

Firstly we have Tommy Hanson the bearded twenty-four year-old right hander from Tulsa, Oklahoma who is preparing for his second full season in the Majors, although it will be Tommy’s third season as part of the Braves starting rotation. Thinking back to early in his career the organisation didn’t make it easy on Tommy when, in order for him to make his Major League debut, the Braves cut loose future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine and promoted the then 22-year-old into the starting rotation. While his overall numbers were slightly better in 2009, for example an 11-4 record and 2.89 ERA compared to 10-11 record and 3.33 ERA, it was really 2010 that Tommy evolved into the ace Braves fans everywhere are hoping he will become. He started the joint most games for the team (34 tied with Tim Hudson) pitched the second most innings with 202.2 (second to Hudson’s 228.2) and was far and away the Braves best strikeout pitcher with 173 at a 7.7 strikeout per nine innings rate. Had it not be for five bad starts in May and June, when his monthly ERA’s were 5.09 and 6.31 respectively Hanson could have had a truly incredible season. Regardless of what could have been for Tommy had the team chosen to score any runs for him what he did in September needs to be applauded. In six starts Hanson only had a record of 2-1 but in those six games Tommy posted a 2.04 ERA giving up more than two earned runs only once and pitching at least six innings in all six games.

Someone who didn’t have quite as successful 2010 was Jair Jurrjens. Coming off a mind blowingly good 2009 that saw JJ put up an ERA of 2.60 while pitching 215 innings and striking out 152 opposition hitters. Following his first year establishing himself as a potential ace JJ was playing some harmless game of winter ball when he tried to do something not natural to all pitchers; he fielded an infield hit and threw to first base. In the throwing motion Jurrjens made the throw to first base awkwardly and ended up missing parts of Spring Training with an inflamed shoulder. This episode pretty much set the tone for JJ’s entire season that seemed to be constantly interrupted by injury leading to infuriating inconsistency, when I was looking at Jair’s numbers for this I was completely gobsmacked that he had started 20 games and pitched 116.1 innings. None of these starts were particularly memorable and the last one on September 14^th against Washington really summed up the entire year for Jurrjens, in five innings he gave up nine hits, four runs and two home runs and managed to tear the meniscus in his right knee finally putting an end to his miserable season. Coming into this season JJ looked after himself more than maybe ever before, although not to the point of being in the best shape of his life, and even came into camp under 200 pounds. Hopefully the work Jair did this offseason will benefit him much more than the work he did last off season.

Anchoring these two young bucks are two men towards the other end of their careers one who could not have performed better for the first five months of the season and one who couldn’t have been better in the last month of 2010. Tim Hudson bounced back from a 2009 season that included Tommy John surgery, Tommy John rehab and a successful comeback at the end of the year. Despite the encouragement created by that successful comeback nobody imagined that Huddy would produce the kind of season he did in 2010. I mentioned when talking about Tommy Hanson the durability that Hudson showed, making 34 starts and pitching 228.2 innings, the most he had pitched since 2003. When you consider he did this after a nearly year round recovery from the aforementioned Tommy John surgery it makes what Tim did even more spectacular. He posted the second lowest ERA and WHIP of his career with 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The lack of strikeouts and a reliance on a defence that now includes Dan Uggla seem to indicate that Hudson won’t be quite as dominant as last year but, even if he only puts up his career numbers of a 3.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, then could this really be that bad of a season. The Braves will be relying on their other veteran Derek Lowe to produce numbers much more like his September and October numbers than the preceding five months. During the Braves stretch run to the Postseason in 2010 Lowe went 5-0 in 5 September starts with a sparkling 1.17 ERA this was after posting a monthly ERA of under 4.00 only once (that was 3.99 in June). Remember as well he was taking the ball on three days’ rest regularly at the end of the season and in the play-offs when, despite going 0-2 against the World Champion Giants Lowe posted a 2.31 ERA while in the process of those six weeks he completely rebuilt his relationship with the Braves fans and, for the first season with the Braves, will enter the season with very few questions about his personality or his ability.

And then to fill out the rotation the team will have either the youngest or least experienced pitcher in the rotation. The two competing young men are seventh overall pick in the 2007 draft Mike Minor and obscure September saviour Brandon Beachy. Minor is favourite has he is both a lefty and remarkably talented without a huge ceiling, Beachy came out of nowhere last season much in the way Kris Medlen did in 2009, he produced three strong starts at the end of September when Minor struggled and held down the fort for the team without fully getting his reward. The fifth spot in the rotation does seem to be a genuinely open contest that new manager Fredi Gonzalez will base his decision solely on how both young men perform in Spring Training. Having the left handed Minor in the rotation would be a nice balance given the current right hand heavy nature of the starting rotation that would be a weakness against the lefty-heavy Phillies line-up. Whoever wins it we just have to hope the winner will be a nice addition to what could already be a dominant rotation.