Today’s preview focuses on the central divisions, I don’t know whether I am leaving the best till last but that’s the way it seems, while there may be better teams in the West and East of the country these could be the two most competitive divisions in all of baseball. Both divisions produced 90 game winners an MVP and several other candidates. Once again these two divisions will produce a good selection of quality teams and also some significantly below average organisations.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been one of the most consistent organisations in the sport the last few years and have built a nucleus of players that almost guarantees they will contend on an annual basis. They are centred on the MVP talents of Joe Mauer who is ably backed up by Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Denard Span and Jason Kubel. The only question in the line-up is rookie second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka making his US debut after a very productive career in his native Japan. Coming off the most productive season of his career the Twins hope he will prove why they were so ready to let go of Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy. For the first time in recent memory the Twins have also assembled a pitching rotation, headed by the rejuvenated figures of Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano, that is worthy of being called a contender.
Star- Joe Mauer. Coming off his MVP season in 2009 Mauer struggled with some nagging injuries coming out of Spring Training before settling in and delivering another huge season, hitting .327 with a .402 OBP. Expect 2009 to have been the exception rather than the rule as far as Mauer’s home run totals go.
Top Prospect- Kyle Gibson RHP. Another home grown Minnesota kid the Twins took Gibson in the first round of the 2009 draft after a stress fracture in his arm caused him to fall to them at the 22nd pick. He doesn’t feature the kind of fastball you would expect someone of his 6’6 stature to but he has a plus slider and change-up, he has similar ability to make pitches as Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey but Gibson has far superior stuff.
Win Total- 82. A significant drop in wins by the Twins but, while other teams have improved they appear to have stood still. A better White Sox team will take some wins from the Twins and playing in an unusually deep American League will hurt their standing.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox solidified their line-up by re-signing Paul Konerko and strengthened with the addition of power bat Adam Dunn. While those two could hit 100 homers between them it will be the other pieces of the line-up that decide the south siders destiny for 2011. Gordon Beckham will look to bounce back from a pretty terrible sophomore slump and rookie third baseman Brent Morel should improve the club both on offense and defense. The health of Jake Peavy is perhaps the biggest factor for Chicago, if healthy Peavy could prove the difference between October baseball and October golf.
Star- Mark Buerhle. Despite the presence of Konerko and Dunn it is the 32-year-old veteran lefty who remains the face of the team. His between the legs flip to first for a ground ball out on Opening Day in 2010 remains one of the White Sox most memorable moments.
Top Prospect- Chris Sale LHP. Sale already arrived at the Major League level last year and collected his first big league save on September 1st. A fastball/slider pitcher Sale has the stuff to be successful at either the front of the rotation or the back of the bullpen.
Win Total- 84. I know the White Sox are a fashionable pick but I am working on the assumption that they get at least half a season out of Peavy and the Sale replaces Edwin Jackson in the rotation at some point. They have the power to narrowly edge out the Twins.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers contended for 90% of 2010 before falling away towards the end of the season and project to be there or there about once again. The addition of Victor Martinez to the line-up gives them another power bat to slot in with Magglio Ordonez and the troubled Miguel Cabrera. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch enter the season in their second big league seasons and with the potential to form two thirds of a dynamic outfield for the foreseeable future. The rotation remains a weakness despite the presence of Justin Verlander, after him the Tigers lack any stand out pitching.
Star- Miguel Cabrera. Despite his off-field issues this Spring Cabrera comes in to the season after finishing second in the AL MVP balloting. After hitting .328 with 38 homers in 2010 Cabrera has put his demons to one side and lit up Spring ball with a .324 average and 4 long balls.
Top Prospect- Jacob Turner RHP. Turner is a power pitcher with both a two and four-seam fastball, both of which reside in the mid-90’s. In 2009 his $4.7 million bonus set a record for a high school pitcher, a record since broken. While Turner won’t reach the Major Leagues at quite the rate Rick Porcello did he has a far higher ceiling for when he does arrive.
Win Total- 80. Slightly worse than 2010 but in a very strong division, I can’t see any way for the Tigers to pass the Twins and White Sox but they will still be a very competitive team.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have come a long way since their last division championship in 2007, unfortunately they have travelled a long way in the wrong direction. After trading away CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee in 2008 and 2009 the Indians almost permanently hoisted the white flag over Progressive Field. Luckily the Indians are the first of the two bottom dwellers in the AL Central that has a very bright future. Any success the Indians have in 2011 will depend on Matt Laporta establishing himself as a genuine Major Leaguer and Carlos Santana progressing into the star he is set to be. The Tribes lack of top quality pitching will only become more obvious as the season goes on.
Star- Shin Soo Choo. While it may be one of the Indians top prospects taking this spot very soon 2011 is still Choo’s time in Cleveland. Quietly he is one of the most consistently productive players in baseball, he is coming off the back of back-to-back .300 average 20 home run and 20 stolen base seasons.
Top Prospect- Lonnie Chisenhall 3B. Since being drafted in 2008 Chisenhall has done one thing and one thing only in the Indians farm: hit. Whilst he only has average defense and range in the field Chisenhall’s bat allows any deficiency to be overlooked. Chisenhall mashed in 12 spring training games, hitting a round .500 with 2 home runs expect him to be in the Majors as soon as his service time clock runs out.
Win Total- 67. Perhaps a tiny bit high for the Indians but this is a slightly worse Indians team than in 2010, it may be the last of the Tribes bad teams if all their young talent plays out in the big leagues.
Kansas City Royals
If the Indians are excited for the future the Royals must be in uncontrollable ecstasy. For the first time in the recent past Royals fans can see the light at the end of the tunnel, while they will start the season with Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francouer in the outfield it could be the last season for a long time the Royals are irrelevant. Unfortunately while the future is very bright they will have to get through 2011 to get to it, after winning 67 games last year this year could be worse for a very poor Major League roster. The most worrying part is the pitching rotation that is far and away the worst in the AL if not all of baseball, it is possibly the only rotation that won’t have a single ERA under 4.00.
Star- Billy Butler. Butler begins 2011 as a 24-year-old with three full years of Major League experience, a .299 career average and 55 career homers. He is coming off a career best year in which he hit .318 with a .388 OBP and 15 round trippers. One of the least recognised players in baseball.
Top Prospect- Eric Hosmer 1B. One of the most hyped prospects in recent years Hosmer is a power hitting first baseman who profiles as the Royals long term three hole hitter. His advanced approach has been compared to Joey Votto’s and, at only 21 years of age, Hosmer has plenty of time to develop into the kind of player Royals fans have dreamed of. The Royals farm system is ranked the best in baseball by Baseball America and they will start the season with all of their top-10 prospects 22-yers-old or under.
Win Total- 65. The 2011 Royals will be exactly what the 2010 Royals were: uninspiring, uncompetitive and plain uninteresting. It will be the last time for a long time.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
The defending NL Central champions return one year older and one year better. While they were throttled by the Phillies in the postseason it was just a success for the Reds to get into the play-offs after several years outside. With Joey Votto winning the NL MVP the Reds have put together a team that perfectly mixes young home grown players, like Votto and Jay Bruce, with wily productive veteran, see Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips. The pitching staff would be the jewel of almost any other teams crown but for the Reds it is almost somewhat of an afterthought despite the presence of Bronson Arroyo and the emergence of Jonny Cueto, Mike Leake and Edison Volquez. The Reds will be one of the most exciting teams in baseball this season because of their young talent both on the mound and at the plate.
Star- Joey Votto. It’s impossible to look past Votto coming off the back of his incredibly successful 2010 season. He had career highs in average, home runs, the obsolete stat of RBI, walks and OBP at an obscene .424 mark. Whilst it is difficult to see anything other than regression from Votto he will still be one of the top 10 hitters in National League.
Top Prospect- Aroldis Chapman LHP. Chapman very possibly already has the best fastball in the major league, obliterating speed guns at any Major League park he visited. After signing a six-year, $30.25 million contract the Reds expected an awful lot of Chapman and in 15 big league games he delivered, including the fastest pitch ever recorded in Major League history at 105.1 mph on September 24th.
Win Total- 90. An improved division is the main reason the Reds drop one win from their 2010 total, I still expect them to collect another postseason berth and potentially go much deeper into October.
St Louis Cardinals
With the ominous spectre of the Albert Pujols contract situation hanging over the Cardinals 2011 season they will either do as they have through Spring Training and ignore it or, more worryingly, be crushed under the weight of Prince Albert’s impending future. They have plenty other good players to be distracted by the Pujols situation but the injury to Adam Wainwright that will cost him all of 2011 will do more damage than any contract negotiations.
Star- Albert Pujols. Despite the lack of a long-term deal going into the season Pujols is still the best player in the game. In 2010 he completed his tenth straight season of hitting over .300 with 30 plus home runs, 100 plus RBI’s and an over .390 OBP. He will be all kinds of beastly all over again.
Top Prospect- Shelby Miller RHP. Miller began building himself a mythology as a 19-year-old in his second pro season, for a low-Class A Quad Cities play-off game Miller promised a shutout before pitching seven scoreless innings that included a career high 13 strikeouts. Miller has three potentially plus-pitches including a mid-nineties fastball that some scouts believe is ready for the Major League today. He could be in St Louis as early as 2012.
Win Total- 86. Despite the loss of Adam Wainwright the introduction of Kyle McClellan into the rotation should solidify it for the Red Birds to match their total from 2010. Expect to see the Cardinals attempt to acquire a starting pitcher at some point, McClellan’s career high in innings pitched is 75.2, something to keep your eye on.
Milwaukee Brewers
The acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to add to a rotation already including Yovani Gallardo seemed to transfer the Brewers from middling to contending almost overnight. Despite Greinke beginning the year injured he should return by the end of April and provide the Crew with an early season boost. This will also likely be Prince Fielders last season in Wisconsin and, if the Brewers are out of contention come July don’t expect to see him finish the season in a Milwaukee jersey.
Star- For once the Brewers have plenty of individuals to choose from and it really is the collective starting rotation that should star for the Crew. Both Greinke and Marcum are switching from the American to National league, expect to see their numbers make the necessary adjustment.
Top Prospect- Jake Odorizzi RHP. Odorizzi is the top of a farm system rated the worst in all of baseball. A very pitcher heavy top ten prospect list is lead by the 6-2 righty who was drafted in 2008. An extremely poised 21-year-old Odorizzi will begin the year at High-A as a 21-year-old, the Brewers won’t rush him and will probably keep him in AA should he be promoted.
Win Total-85. Despite the huge improvement it’s impossible to envision the Brewers ousting both the Reds and Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Their four and five starters don’t match up well with their division opponents and that may be the difference between third and first in a very tight division.
Houston Astros
The Astros were one of the least inspiring teams of 2010 suffering through poor contracts, injuries and Minute Maid Park. Unfortunately nothing has changed with the calendar. The Astros ended the season with some nice young pieces including corner infielders Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace. Michael Bourn remained one of the best center fielders in baseball who, despite finishing with a .265 average and .341 OBP, finished with 52 stolen bases while being caught only 12 times. J.A Happ was also effective when he arrived as the centrepiece of the Roy Oswalt trade to Philadelphia.
Star- Hunter Pence. Pence is really only the star because there were so few options, he has both power and speed could well be in line for his first 20-20 season.
Top Prospect- Jordan Lyles RHP. Lyles profiles as a number 3 starter as he lacks a power fastball, sitting between 88-93. It is his slider and change-up that are true plus pitches grading at 60 and 70 on the 20-80 scale respectively. Despite not winning a job out of Spring Training expect to see Lyles in an Astros uniform before the end of 2011.
Win Total- 71. For all the reasons last year was a disappointment expect this one to be even more so. Another poor farm system indicates that, unless the Astros look to deal Wandy Rodriguez and/or Michael Bourn, this may be exactly who the Astros are for the foreseeable future.
Chicago Cubs
One of the most enigmatic clubs in all of baseball the Cubs seem to be stuck in a funk that is much more about the 2000’s and much less about anything that happened in the 1920’s or 40’s. The Cubs have gone hard to improve on a poor 75 win season in 2010 that also included the unexpected and emotional retirement of manager Lou Pinella. 2011 will be Mike Quade’s first season as Cubs manager and he has been handed a potentially excellent rotation, the returns of Ryan Dempster and a seemingly stable Carlos Zambrano as well as the acquisition of Matt Garza give the Cubs three proven Major League Starters. Combined with Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner the rotation alone makes the Cubs an intriguing club in the NL Central.
Star- Starlin Castro. A little bit of a left field choice but Castro was amazing as a 20-year-old rookie, hitting .300 in 125 games he was one of the few bright spots for the North Siders. Expect to see him establish himself further at the big league level as one of the premier hitting and fielding shortstops.
Top Prospect- Brett Jackson OF. With the trade of Chris Archer to the Rays in exchange for Matt Garza it is the speedy outfielder who becomes Chicago’s defacto top prospect. Jackson profiles as a highly efficient Major League centerfielder with above average speed and decent defensive skills. The Cubs are confident Jackson will have a permanent role in their team in 2012 but hope it may be earlier.
Win Total- 78. Only a slight improvement for the Cubs but what I see out of them is a set-up season. This should be a transition year as Quade builds a team in his image, there will undoubtedly be some issues to be eased out in the process.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Where to begin with the poor Pittsburgh Pirates. Whilst being regarded as one of the worst teams if not the worst they have done little to rebuild through the draft and trades like Kansas City and have taken root as the miniscule-budget losing franchise. Especially painful for Pirates fans is seeing the success their cross-State rival Phillies have had while the Pirates front office and ownership have scuffled and failed to significantly improve their team. The introductions of Neil Walker, Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez gave the Pirates fans something to turn up to PNC Park for.
Star- Andrew McCutchen. The highlight reel centerfielder has really taken over the role of Mr Pirate since his debut in 2009. In both of his Major League seasons he has hit .286 with a combined 28 home runs and 55 stolen bases. While his numbers aren’t eye popping at least they are consistant.
Top Prospect- Jameson Taillon RHP. The 2010 number 2 overall pick profiles as a Josh Beckett like front of the rotation starter. At 6-5, 223 pounds it is unlikely that Taillon will add much physically but will likely fill out, he still has a lot to learn about the game and pitching, he already flashes three potentially plus pitches including a 93-97 mph fastball. The Pirates are in no rush with Taillon wanting to make sure they get every dime out of their $6.5 million bonus they paid him at the August 16th deadline.
Win Total- 60. I have the Pirates slightly better than last year mainly because I don’t see how they can be any worse. Baseball fans can only hope that the morbid feeling hanging around the Pirates doesn’t infect their promising young players.
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