When the Braves acquired Dan Uggla from the Marlins in December people in both the media and baseball celebrated the move as a crucial addition that could put the Braves over the top and potentially reclaim the NL East crown. When the organisation signed the slugger to a five year $62 million contract in January it was accepted that the move would prove beneficial for the Braves, even though Uggla will be a 36-year-old slugging middle infielder by the time his deal expires. The move to get Uggla from the Marlins was inspired, even more so when you consider that all the Braves gave up was a utility infielder and average major league relief pitcher. Over the last five years Uggla has been the most productive second baseman in the Major Leagues hitting 154 home runs with under 30 homers only once, and that was in his rookie year. But his power is really Uggla’s only plus skill; he is the owner of a career .263 batting average with a 349 on base percentage with practically no speed and well documented defensive frailties. So what will Uggla offer over the next five years in Atlanta?
Well you only have to look at his statistical splits to see that Dan has been very successful in the 181 at-bats he has had in Turner Field across his career, hitting .354 with 12 home runs and 16 doubles, number that suggest Ugglas power plays well in the generally pitcher friendly confines of the Ted. As I have already mentioned he will be 36 at the conclusion of the contract, hardly when you’d be expecting someone to be matching his peak production. It’s difficult to predict how Uggla will age given the rarity of power hitting second basemen in the sport and, when you add in his powerful frame it’s almost impossible to project any physical problems he may encounter. If he does stay healthy however there is one figure from the fairly recent past who could give some indication of Ugglas career path. Jeff Kent had been in the big leagues 3 years longer than Dan Uggla when Kent turned 31 in 1999 playing in San Francisco and, like Uggla, coming off the most successful year of his career. In his first eight big league seasons Kent hit 138 home runs and had just made his first All-Star team but was yet to win a silver slugger despite ranking second in home runs amongst second basemen from 1994-1998. Kent began his 31 year-old season as a member of the Barry Bonds San Francisco Giants and as the Majors premier power hitting second baseman with competition coming from only Criag Biggio. Over the next five years of his career, from 1999-2003 Kent hit another 115 home runs, leading all second basemen by a wide margin whilst also ranking second in walks. The five year period also coincided with the four highest averages of his career as he hit .290 in 1999, .334 in 2000, .298 in 2001, .313 in 2002 and .297 in 2003.
For the first eight years of his career Kent used his plus power to separate him as an elite second baseman, much like Dan Uggla has, before improving both his average and on base percentage from his 31-year old season through 36 years. If Uggla can continue the improvements in average and on base skills then, like Jeff Kent, he can continue producing at an All-Star level for the duration of his deal. It’s worth noting that Kent didn’t make his first All-Star team until 1999 and didn’t win a silver slugger until 2000, Uggla already has won his first silver slugger and has two All-Star appearances (although I’m sure Uggla wishes it was still only one). The most important thing for a player like Uggla is to stay healthy, especially in his upper body, to maintain the natural power that his strong frame had. The protection that the bats of McCann, Chipper and Heyward provide will give Uggla plenty more hittable pitches than he saw in the relatively light Marlins line-up, and he should hit them out more than in the cavernous Sun-Fin-Life-Fish stadium down in Miami. Just a little bit of trivia to finish up, does anyone know the last time a Braves player hit 30 home runs?
Time up: Andruw Jones & Adam LaRoche both did it in 2006.
Brutal
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