The eastern divisions are both filled with great players and really good teams, both contain the favourites for the World Series and plenty of postseason experience. Most major broadcasters are accused of having an ‘eastern bias’ and both the NL and AL East are examples of why that might not be bad thing. Here’s why:
AL East
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox come off a year they considered a major disappointment despite winning 89 games. They have tried to right the perceived wrongs of 2010 by going out and getting the biggest free-agent who is not a pitcher and then trading for one of the five best first basemen in all of baseball. They will also receive full season from some crucial players that missed time in 2010 thanks to a variety of injuries, Terry Francona and Theo Epstein also hope that their expensively assembled pitching rotation will be more effective than it was for the majority of last year.
Star- Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia is one of those players that missed significant time in 2010 thanks to a broken foot. Despite only playing 75 games for the Sox the 2009 MVP still hit a respectable .288 with a .367 OBP and 12 home runs. With Chase Utley beginning the season on the DL Pedroia should use 2011 to solidify himself as the best second baseman in the Major Leagues.
Top Prospect- Jose Iglesias SS. Iglesias won’t light up any it up with the bat but what he lacks in hitting ability (it’s not much, he should be MLB average) he makes up for with his defensive ability. He has quick feet and hands along with a strong body which results in numerous webgems. He has hit .295 in barely one season of pro ball and, if he works on his plate discipline, could be a number 2 hitter and end the Red Sox inconsistency at short.
Win Total- 98. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make this club the best in baseball by quite a margin. The only potential hiccups will stem from either Josh Beckett or John Lackey struggling again.
New York Yankees
The Yankees weren’t quite the World Champions of 2009 thanks in large part to wildly erratic pitching. The acquisition of Javier Vazquez didn’t work as Brian Cashman and the Yankee front office hoped while the promotion of Phil Hughes from bullpen to rotation was one of the most successful roster moves in recent years. The Yankees missed out on all the big name free agents as, like the Rangers, they were blindsided by Cliff Lee’s decision to sign with the Phillies. It is easy to forget with all the coverage and melodrama that this is still the most successful franchise of our time, it just doesn’t feel like their year.
Star- It’s almost impossible to choose with the Yankees plethora of talent by special mention should be made of CC Sabathia. The workhorse ace almost single handily held together the Yankee rotation in 2010 and will be hoping that Aj Burnett and other back him up a little this year.
Top Prospect- Jesus Montero C. Montero has shown the Yankees brass that he can hit and has a bright future on one condition: he finds his best position. Many scouts feel Montero is too much of a liability to be an everyday player behind the plate but it is impossible to envision a 23-year-old DH. He will start 2011 in the minors working on his defense.
Win Total- 88. I expect the Yankees to be very similar to the 2010 Red Sox, still a superpower but one that loses the arms race to the other powerful teams in the AL East. Expect to see a major issue involving ownership hit the Yankees at some point this summer.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were like a new team after Buck Showalter was named their new manager in July and had a far more successful second half as they went 34-25. The Orioles are still very much a developing team that is maybe 2 or 3 years away from reaching its full potential. The young crop of players are lead by 24-year-old lefty Brian Matusz who struggled some in his rookie year going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA but pitched a lot better than his record suggests. Their rotation includes four pitches 26-years and under and has another in the system, Zach Britton, that should make this one of the better rotations in the AL. The acquisitions of Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds improve the Baltimore offense to make them respectable without being competitive.
Star- Choose between Adam Jones or Matt Wieters depending on their 2011 seasons. Both are young players the Baltimore organisation believes but, especially Wieters, could approach the end of the big league clubs patience.
Top Prospect- Manny Machado SS. The number three pick in the 2010 draft that has outstanding hitting ability with five-tool potential. Machado showed great abilities as a contact hitter as he struck out only 3 times in 36 professional at-bats. Machado has been compared to Alex Rodriguez which is probably a little hopeful but expect for the young shortstop to make his share of All-Star games.
Win Total- 75. This is very much a work in progress for both Showalter and the Orioles and winning over 70 games should be viewed as a great achievement for them. Expect to see gradual improvement from Baltimore not a Tampa Bay like rise.
Tampa Bay Rays
It is not often a team loses its star player and entire bullpen and lives to tell the tale but the Rays should still be right in contention thanks to years of intelligent drafting and favourable trades. The loss of Carl Crawford is undoubtedly a big one and it will affect the Rays but the signing of Jonny Damon at least means he is replaced by an established Major Leaguer. Matt Garza was traded to the Chicago to make room in the rotation for phenom Jeremy Hellickson while also adding more top prospects to the Rays seeming endless supply.
Star- Evan Longoria. Longoria seemed to settle into who he will be for the rest of his career with the 2010 season, hitting .294 with a .372 OBP and 22 home runs. While he may not be the monster A-Rod like hitter that Tampa Bay fans would like he will still be one of the premier players at his position and a genuine leader for a young Rays team.
Top Prospect- Jeremy Hellickson RHP. Hellickson has already proven that he can pitch at the big league level with a small cameo at the end of 2010. In 10 games that included 4 starts the 23-year-old went 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 36 innings. Whilst he has four pitches that he can throw for strikes his most effective offering is a low-80’s change-up that gives him an effective weapon against lefties.
Win Total- 93. I think that despite losing some big pieces the Rays production line is so efficient now that they are affected significantly less than other teams. The three games lost on last year reflects Crawford leaving while Hellickson replacing Garza is a virtual wash.
Toronto Blue Jays
If there is one team in baseball that it is difficult to pigeon hole it is the Jays. They were one of the most surprising teams in the game last year, experiencing an almost unprecedented power surge that saw Jose Bautista hit over 50 home runs. They also produced some of the most intriguing young pitching talent that included Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and latterly Kyle Drabek. A lot of the Jays season rests on how Aaron Hill bounces back from a down year while a repeat of last years fireworks from Bautista seems unlikely.
Star- Jose Bautista. After six less than average big league seasons Bautista exploded as a 30-year-old hitting 54 home runs while playing 161 games. Bautista was an especially dangerous hitter at the Rogers Center where he hit .282 with 33 of those long balls. His career up until this point suggests that his 2010 season will be more of an aberration than a recurring thing but it vaulted Bautista to unprecedented heights.
Top Prospect- Kyle Drabek RHP. The son of former Major Leaguer Doug Drabek the 23-year-old righty will look to prove why the Blue Jays were finally willing to trade Roy Halladay. After dominating Double-A for 27 games last year Drabek jumped straight to the Major Leagues making his debut on September 15th. While he wasn’t at his best at the end of a long season he still pitched to a quite respectable 4.76 ERA giving up three earned runs in each of his three starts. If Drabek can develop his cutter and change-up to go with a plus fastball and hammer curveball then he should be a top of the rotation talent in Toronto for quite a while.
Win Total- 85. This is perhaps one of my more optimistic estimates but I have some confidence in it anyway. I think the Jays rotation gives then the edge over most AL teams and should keep them competitive in the toughest division in baseball.
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