With the baseball season almost upon us it’s time to begin the over excited speculation and begin to look at the season ahead that holds so many hopes for so many teams, players, fans and businessmen. This is perhaps one of those big projects I occasionally embark on that envelops me in a storm of sandwiches, sleep and Wikipedia induced inaccuracy but I hope that it will be somewhat more interesting than some of my previous ambitious attempts. So let me lay out exactly what I intend to do, over the next three days (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) I’ll preview all thirty MLB teams, not in as much depth as I would like but I’ll do my best, looking at stars, prospects and a projected win total. The total number of wins in a major league season is 2430 and my initial estimates were about 100 wins too high, I have since fiddled and an down to 30 too high but I don’t want to play too much so I’ll just let those 30 wins shake out over the course of the season. Hopefully I’m able to make this a good read and something interesting for baseball fans both avid and fair-weather. I’ll do two divisions a day one NL and one AL and to go against the grain a little bit let’s start with the Western divisions.
NL West
The NL West is the home of the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants as well as the ultra competitive Colorado Rockies, the 2010 Cinderella San Diego Padres and the enigmatic Los Angeles Dodgers who have had their legs removed from under them by the McCourt divorce enveloping the club. It is still one of the more competitive divisions in baseball one in which all four teams won over eighty games last season and could have had two teams in the 2010 postseason had it not been for the remarkable Padres meltdown. Now, on to the teams:
San Francisco Giants
It’s only right and proper to begin with the defending champs and the Giants were one of the least likely champions in recent memory. The 2010 team was built on its dominant pitching staff headed by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain whilst being reinforced by the arrival of the organisations number 2 prospect Madison Bumgarner on June 26th. The Giant pitching staff led all of baseball with a 3.36 ERA whilst also having the league lead in strikeouts and the joint fourth most complete games. The hitting came from all a strange collection of players with the Giants deeply indebted to Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, who didn’t make his big league debut until May 29th, and waiver wire pick up Cody Ross. Posey batted .288 in the postseason while Ross hit .294 with 5 home runs.
Star-Tim Lincecum remains the face of the franchise despite a relative down year in which he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, both highs in a full season for Lincecum. His position is being challenged by the young catching upstart Posey who stole the show in 2010 with his outstanding rookie campaign and profiles as a potential Joe Maur type in the Bay Area.
Top Prospect-Brandon Belt 1B, Belt is regarded as the Giants top prospect and has impressed this spring hitting .306 with 3 home runs. He is a pure hitting prospect with average power and a potential Gold Glove defender at First Base but has also been athletic enough to spend time at the corner outfield positions. The lack of major league depth at first base could lead to Belt arriving at the big league level sooner rather than later, his talent suggests that he will have a Posey like impact when he does arrive.
Win Total: 93. The Giants won 92 games in 2010 and if anything are stronger with Posey and Bumgarner spending the full year in the majors, despite the improvements I can’t see where they will get many extra wins from.
San Diego Padres
The team that surprised most in 2010 is set for a slight regression in 2011 thanks mainly to the departure of the Padres premier offensive producer in first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who is now with the Boston Red Sox. The pitching is still stellar with a staff that finished second in the majors in ERA with a sparkling 3.39 mark with 20 shutouts. The infield is improved defensively with the arrivals of Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson while the pitching rotation remains strong with Mat Latos beginning his second full season and number 6 prospect Cory Luebke beginning his first full season in the majors.
Star-If there is one thing the Friars lack it is a genuine face of the franchise, if anything closer Heath Bell will fill the void left by Gonzalez but don’t expect Bell to willingly take the star role.
Top Prospect-Casey Kelly RHP, Kelly was acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, Kelly has three plus pitched and above-average command while still being at least a year away from the majors. Kelly struggled at AA in the Red Sox farm system last year and will be looking to bounce back in 2011.
Win Total: 85. After winning 90 games last year it’s difficult to see the Padres bettering that total with a weaker offensive team. They should find it difficult to compete with both the Rockies and Giants.
Colorado Rockies
Despite an MVP calibre season from left fielder Carlos Gonzalez the Rockies failed to meet expectations in 2010 and didn’t get a full season from shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who showed superhuman strength in the final month of the season, he hit 15 home runs in September. The Rockies enter the season with a young team led by Tulo and CarGo along with potential Cy Young contender Ubaldo Jimenez leading a rotation that also include Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin.
Star-It’s a three way tie for star status in Denver with Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Jimenez all making claims to being the franchise face but, mainly due to his MVP type season last year, Carlos Gonzalez is currently the man for the Rockies.
Top Prospect-Tyler Matzek LHP, He has the potential to be a genuine front line starter but is still young, not turning 21 until October and yet to pitch a full pro season. Matzek will begin the season at High-Class A with the potential to be with the Rockies as a 2012 late season call-up.
Win Total-91. An eight game improvement on 2010 reflects a full season of Tulowitzki as well as a settled rotation and the departure of some of the deadwood (Barmes and Hawpe to name two), the Rockies should hit and pitch themselves to the edge of the play-offs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have unfortunately become somewhat of a soap opera thanks to the divorce of Frank and Jamie McCourt, the teams principal owners. Due to fighting over club ownership and funds in the organisation the Dodgers have had to stand pat in the free agent market as well as any long term contracts. Despite this they still have a core of young talent that should carry the team to a least occasional competitiveness; this core is lead by outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp along with first baseman James Loney and pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. There is no questioning their talent physically, for the Dodgers it is all mental.
Star-Whilst it should be either Ethier or Loney both were underwhelming in 2010 that left the door wide open for Clayton Kershaw to establish himself as the Dodgers main man for now and the foreseeable future.
Top Prospect-Dee Gordon SS, Gordon is a speedy shortstop with plus defense and potentially plus hitting although he has little to no power. Gordon has compiled a .297 average in three minor league seasons; he has already compiled 144 stolen bases and is set for plenty more when he truly learns to pick his spots. Gordon should arrive in the Majors in September at the latest.
Win Total: 80. I don’t see how the Dodgers, in Don Mattingly’s first season as a Major League manager, can manufacture a season better than last year and it could be a couple of years to see the Dodgers bouncing back as a true power thanks to the damage done to the organisation by the divorce.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The only team in the division who should really struggle this year and appear to be at the beginning of a very long road back to the glory they tasted back in 2001. Despite a wealth of young talent at the big league level the Diamondbacks lack the one thing that the other teams in their division have: pitching. Dan Hudson was very good when he came over in the Edwin Jackson trade pitching to a 1.69 ERA in the 11 starts he made for Arizona but, after Hudson, there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Some people still have hope for Ian Kennedy but he is a fly ball pitcher in a home run park, Joe Saunders was mildly effective after arriving in the desert from the Angels but is a number three starter at best. The rest of the staff will be made up of two of Barry Enright, Armando Galarraga, Zach Duke or Aaron Heilman. The hitting will rely on whether Justin Upton can bounce back to 2009 form after a down year.
Star- Upton is the only real All-Star talent on a middling team and even he struggled last year, hitting only .273, but still came close to another 20-20 season as he hit 17 home runs and 18 stolen bases. If Upton struggles again then Hudson has the potential to be a classic small market star.
Top Prospect- Jarrod Parker RHP, After sitting out all of 2010 thanks to Tommy John surgery Parker is set to restart a career loaded with potential. Despite a relatively small frame, 6-1,180lbs, Parker has a good mid-90’s fastball with a plus slider that Baseball America graded as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Thanks to the weak pitching in the big leagues Parker might not have to wait long for a Diamondbacks debut.
Win Total-65. The Diamondbacks are still in the early rebuilding stages and will be relying on new GM Kevin Towers to draft and deal well to put this team in position to win in the future. Unfortunately this is exactly the same team that lost 97 games in 2010, I don’t see any way they don’t do that again.
AL West
The division that provided the other World Series contender is also situated west of the Mississppi River with the Texas Rangers providing a similar surge to the Pennant as the Giants did in the NL. Whilst the Angels and Athletics won 80 and 81 games respectively they were never really in contention for a play-off berth while the Mariners were a trendy pick they didn’t get star offseason acquisition Cliff Lee on the field until April 30th and were never in contention thanks to some awful hitting before further facilitating the Rangers success when they sent Lee to Arlington with a bow attached. With the improvements that A’s made and the solidifying that took place in Texas this should be an intriguing divisional race.
Texas Rangers
Coming off their first ever World Series appearance the Rangers have solidified an already solid roster without really doing any strengthening. They were blindsided by Cliff Lee’s stealth signing with the Phillies and rocked a couple of months later when franchise stalwart Michael Young announced he wanted to be traded. Whilst the Rangers management somewhat bungled the handling of Young they still go in to Opening Day with the eleven year veteran as the most expensive bench player in baseball. They have also been struck by a rash of pitching injuries with Scott Feldman, Brandon Webb and Tommy Hunter all starting the season on the DL and the Rangers racing to stretch out Alexi Ogando after deciding to keep Neftali Feliz in the bullpen.
Star- Josh Hamilton. Without doubt the AL MVP is the current face of this Rangers franchise and seems to finally have achieved the potential he has always shown. While Hamilton’s 2010 BABIP suggests he will regress somewhat in 2011 he should still produce at an elite level.
Top Prospect- Martin Perez LHP. Perez features a 91-95 mph fastball which has good sink; he also features a deceptive change-up and sharp curveball giving him potentially three plus pitches. Despite struggling in 2010 Texas still sees Perez as a frontline starter who will see time at Triple-A as a 20-year-old.
Win Total-88. A slight regression from last year but with a slightly weaker pitching staff it is difficult to see how the Rangers can win any more games than 2010 in an improved AL. A lot will depend on a potentially unreliable bullpen.
Oakland Athletics
A young Oakland team still managed to compile a .500 record despite having to suffer through 20 Ben Sheets that saw the veteran pitcher go 4-9 with a 4.09 ERA. The bright spots were the other members of the pitching rotation highlighted by Dallas Braden’s perfect game on May 9th. Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson will be a year further along in their developing and Gio Gonzalez has the potential to be a true ace. The additions of Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham and David DeJesus improve an offense that that was almost dead middle in both average and OBP in MLB rankings. Closer Andrew Bailey will start the year on the DL but should not affect the team too negatively.
Star-As seems to be the theme with the A’s lately there is no real star on this team but plenty of star potential. Anderson, Cahill and Gonzalez all have the potential to be elite pitchers and should take a step forward in 2011.
Top Prospect- Grant Green SS. Green heads up a relatively weak farm system (ranking 28 in BA’s organisational rankings) but is quite a prospect. While his defense is somewhat of question, he led the High-A Cal League shortstops in errors, but has a great bat. In two seasons at High-A he has compiled a .317 average in 136 games and continues to work with A’s coaches to pull the ball more and use his legs. He should arrive in the Majors in 2012.
Win Total-91. While the Rangers lose a couple of games because of the questions surrounding their pitching the A’s pick up 10 on the strength of theirs. Potentially the best rotation in the American League the additions Oakland made to the line-up should carry them to their first division title since 2006.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels disappointed in 2010 finishing under .500 despite having what seemed a very competitive team. The Angels haven’t changed much since last year and should be roughly the same team. Despite rumours they were interested in both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford the Angels were never really in the hunt for either free agent and settled instead for the addition of Vernon Wells and his albatross contract. The Halos should benefit from full seasons of Dan Haren and Kendrys Morales but don’t seem strong enough to hang with the Rangers or A’s and seem built to be a .500 team in a very winnable division.
Star- Tory Hunter. Hunter isn’t exactly the huge star Lee or Crawford would have been but he has made this team his own thanks more to his personality than his on-field achievements. It may be a couple of years before the Angels true star arrives in LA.
Top Prospect- Mike Trout CF. Rated as the top prospect in all of baseball Trout should have the Angels fans flocking to Anaheim for years to come. A hitter of the highest calibre Trout also plays outstanding center field and grades at an 80 on the 20-80 scale. While he doesn’t have elite power Trout offers far more than that with genuine All-Star ability.
Win Total- 82. The Angels are what they are and were. Without any major additions to the team it is difficult to see them improving much on the 2010 season. An average 2011 should pave the way for a strong 2012 as the first of their top prospects pave the way for Trout’s arrival.
Seattle Mariners
The soap-opera that occasionally enveloped the Mariners clubhouse did a good job of hiding what a horrible team Seattle was putting on the field in 2010. Felix Hernandez aside no one on the Mariners performed at anywhere close to Major League average and the season displayed that. Ranking last in the Majors in batting average and OBP they were only saved complete humiliation by a pitching staff that produced a 3.93 ERA. 2011 doesn’t project much better for Seattle despite the fact King Felix may win another Cy Young the team is heading towards another 100 losses.
Star- Felix Hernanadez. King Felix established himself as the best pitcher in the American League at the ripe old age of 23. He led the American League in ERA and quality starts and ranked second in WHIP and complete games. The scary thing for AL hitters is that he should only get better. Ichiro remains a star stuck on a bad team and I could watch Franklin Gutierrez play center all day long.
Top Prospect- Dustin Ackley 2B. Ackley struggled in his first pro season thanks mainly to the adjustment he made to playing at second base for the first time. Despite this he is still considered one of the most polished hitter to be drafted in quite some time. The Mariners are warming the second base job for the 23-year-old who could one of the team’s best hitters if he was in the line-up tomorrow. He will however spend the first part of the season at AAA.
Win Total- 60. It is impossible to see where the Mariners would find enough offense to improve on last year and could in fact lose an extra game thanks to a weaker pitching staff. Expect Ichiro and Felix to put up monster numbers on a horrible team.
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