A Public Love Affair

I will happily admit that the NCAA College World Series is my favourite NCAA championship, much more so than the Final Four or the increasingly farcical BCS Championship game. I have been told the Frozen Four is a blast but, having only a passing interest in hockey and absolutely no interest in the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs I can’t make form an informed decision about that specific championship. I already have an unexplainable interest in college sports having come to them at a very late stage and the World Series has especially captured my imagination. 2010 was the first tournament I followed emphatically and this year’s will be the second, there are storylines a plenty, there always are and the biggest is the host site: Omaha.

The site lost some of its mythical qualities with the destruction of Jonny Rosenblatt Stadium but the NCAA kept the eight team tournament in Omaha, Nebraska which has become the heart of the tournament. Would it succeed elsewhere? Say down in Alex Box in Baton Rouge, Louisiana? Or even as a touring spectacle in the same model of the BCS? Yes it would but it wouldn’t be the same. Omaha has been the home of the College World Series since 1950 and the plan is to keep it there until 2035, by that point it would be almost impossible to take the tournament away at that stage, although this is the NCAA so who knows. The week of the College World Series is one the most economically beneficial to the city of Omaha, for example the 2007 World Series brought in $41 million to the city. The plot thickens this year with the first CWS being held at the brand new TD Ameritrade Park instead of the historic ballpark on the hill. Whether the new ballpark takes away some of the character remains to be seen, although a lot of that depends on how the fans take to the new cathedral to college baseball. As long as the fans from LSU continue flocking to the city I am sure that won’t be a problem.

The most enthralling team coming to the tournament this year are the California Golden Bears, a team who should be winding down their existence not preparing to play for a championship. In September 2010 the university announced that, as part of spending cuts, the athletic department would cut several programmes including the baseball team. Through charitable donations, help from friends and family and an endless campaign saw the team raise $9.7 million and successfully achieve their goal of reinstatement in April. After losing five of their final seven weekend series the Bears limped in to the postseason as a number 3 Regional seed in the Houston Regional. After losing to Baylor in their opening game the Bears beat Alcorn State, Rice and Baylor twice to reach the Super Regional where they despatched Dallas Baptist in two games to reach Omaha. Cal will begin play against number 1 seed Virginia on Sunday as huge underdogs, as they have been for the majority of the year, watching how this team reacts after its rollercoaster emotional journey will be one of the most intriguing aspects of this year’s World Series.

The other thing I will be watching closely is the progress of the three Southeastern Conference schools in Omaha this year, yes they were all supposed to be here and yes I may be a little biased towards SEC schools but it is the conference others measure themselves against and it’s always interesting to see how they react to the big game scenarios. The three schools, Florida, Vanderbilt and South Carolina all offer something a little different and equally interesting. Florida is perhaps the most complete team in Omaha this year especially if they can get Sophomore lefty Brian Johnson back from the concussion he suffered in the SEC tournament. They have a deadly rotation with Johnson as well as Hudson Randall and Karsten Whitson anchoring one of the nation’s best pitching staffs that combined with a potent line-up saw them start and finish the season as the number 1 ranked team in the country. Vanderbilt began the season as a team heralded for their pitching and very little else but, as the year progressed, Aaron Westlake and Jason Esposito became increasingly influential figures in an offence that surprised almost everyone, finishing the season fifth in the nation in hitting (.319) and fourteenth in the nation in runs scored per game (7.1). Not that this has affected their pitching staff in any negative way, the pitching staff has gone 5-0 in the postseason with a 1.20 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 45 innings. They also had all three members of the weekend rotation drafted in the first six rounds while the team set an SEC record by having 12 players drafted this year. The Gamecocks of South Carolina come to Omaha this year a very different team to the one that won the College World Series last year. With Sam Dyson and Blake Cooper both leaving school after last year’s success it looked like Ray Tanner would struggle replacing the lost starters, as it was they got even better. The rotation was fronted by last year’s World Series hero Michael Roth who put up the best starting pitcher ERA in the nation with a 1.02 mark and has been backed by the nation’s premier closer in Matt Price who put up a 2.25 ERA in 48 innings across 30 appearances. Expect the Gamecocks to hit the ball well all week, especially Christian Walker and Adrian Morales, but whether they can repeat depends wholly on their pitching.

The College World Series should be a significantly bigger event because of its history, its sense of occasion and the event. It might not have the pomp and circumstance that surrounds the BCS Championship game or the Final Four but it is as close to the raw emotion of baseball that you’re likely to see and that is the one thing the new stadium can’t take away, the emotion of the occasion. If there is one thing you do this week watch at least one game from Omaha and see what all the fuss is about.

Summertime Blues?

When Tommy Hanson throws the first pitch at 4:10 eastern time this afternoon it will begin the most important stretch of Tommy’s young career. Through April Hanson has been, for the most part, brilliant. Despite two unsatisfactory starts against the Nationals and Mets the 24 year-old righty from Oklahoma has put up a 2.57 ERA, good for eighth best in the National League, with a 1.06 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 35 innings. Historically (not including this year) April has been good for Tommy as he has a career 2.17 ERA in the first month of the season and has an average 10.26 K/9 rate. It is in May and June that the struggles have set in for Tommy. In May he has a career ERA of 5.09 and an opponent’s average of .265 before improving slightly in June but maintaining an inexplicable 4.28 ERA. Tommy then improves through July and August before being positively ace-like in September again with a career 2.26 ERA in the season’s final month. The struggles that Tommy has endured in the second and third months of the season are baffling because of his excellence at any other point, I was going to suggest that maybe the increasing hit was a problem for Hanson but it’s no hotter in Atlanta in June than July, when he has a 3.21 ERA. It could be teams seeing him for the second time an making their adjustments before Tommy has made his but again that seems like something that one of his coaches would have altered. I have no idea why Tommy struggles so much in May but today will give us an idea of how he will begin this year, one when he should be making the fabled, mythical, sanctified “next step”!

Tommy should have begun May last night but didn’t because of those annoying storm’s that drift across the South at intermittent intervals in the early summer months. Instead he gets to be the appetiser for Tim Hudson, making it two tough righties the Brewers have to face in one night. Talking of the Braves pitching two very encouraging signs for the Braves, firstly the team currently has the fourth best ERA in all of baseball and third best in the National League with a 3.14 ERA in 30 games and have racked up the joint-fourth most strikeouts in baseball with 229 in 272.2 innings. The other welcome news is that Julio Teheran, the Braves number one prospect and regarded by many as the best right handed prospect in the games, was named the International League pitcher of the week as he went 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 14 innings at the same time as being the youngest player in the IL.

Heating the Hot Seat

We are beginning to reach the point in the season where aberrations begin to feel a lot more like trends and slumps become struggles, unfortunately for the Braves the offense is still slumping and the pitching is struggling to carry it. And after last night’s long, long loss in San Diego Fredi Gonzalez’s honeymoon period has come to an abrupt and ugly end. Are the issues that anyone holding a bat while wearing a Braves jersey are currently experiencing all Fredi’s fault? No they aren’t but we heard about the more aggressive approach this Braves line-up was going to take, well the aggression is there, every time Dan Uggla flails away at a slider down and away on a two strike count the aggression is there, but for a team that lead the National League in OBP and Base on Balls last year is aggression really a good thing? For some guys like Nate McLouth who struggles to take his walks but was being way too hesitant at the plate last year being aggressive has actually helped him (and remember all things are relative) to post a .244 average and his .190 mark from last year. However when you see Jason Heyward going up and swinging at a fastball up and away on the first pitch it cannot possibly be a good thing. As if to illustrate my point the Braves rank 15^th of 16 in teams in the National League in OBP (.296) and 14^th of 16 in average (.226) while having the second most at-bats. While watching the sweep of the defending World Champion Giants over the weekend when the Braves drew 16 walks in the 3 games they then conspired to draw no walks in 13 innings. That’s right exactly ZERO walks in three and a half hours of baseball.

The hitting is not what Fredi is catching heat for though, his adventurous (or not) management of the bullpen has drawn criticism from fans using sabermetrics (capitolavenueclub.com) and some applying the good ol’ fashioned eye ball test (talkingchop.com). Whatever the medium of analysis it is being widely accepted that Gonzalez plays Fantasy Baseball and has Craig Kimbrel as his closer and manages his real team to maximise his fantasy success. If only it was that easy to understand what’s going on. One of the fashionable topics being discussed by the talking heads of the statistical baseball world this year has been the management of bullpens and the actual role of a closer; this was further amplified by Ron Washington’s sporadic use of Neftali Feliz in last year’s play-offs. So what opportunities did Gonzalez have to maximise Kimbrels value to the team? The bottom of the 7^th inning was his first chance with Maybin on second and two outs Fredi lifted Eric O’Flaherty in favour of righty Scott Linebrink to face Nick Hundley. Linebrink has been struggling and after the game Chipper recognised as much, Liney quickly gave up an RBI double to tie the game. That was his first chance but in the seventh maybe a little early but certainly plausible. Using Jonny Venters in the ninth inning is a reasonable choice but taking him out after only one inning is an absolute joke, let’s remember that Venters had been a starter all his career before the beginning of 2010 so it’s not like he can’t go longer. The brevity of Jonny’s appearance last night is just a footnote to the bumbling bullpen management. After choosing to take Venters out for the ninth why not let Kembo pitch the ninth to ensure you force extra innings, instead Gonzalez went with right-handed Cory Gearrin making his Major League debut to pitch the bottom of the ninth in a tie game. Gearrin was actually really good but who could have predicted that? In fact Gearrin ended up pitching two perfect innings but having Kimbrel pitch those two would have expanded the ‘pen and maybe allowed Gearrin to pitch the 11^th and 12^th. I am not in any way opposed to using Gearrin in this game, I believe that if you’re having a guy in the bullpen you need to be willing to use him otherwise it is wasting a roster spot so a little credit to Fredi for not being afraid to use him. At the top of the 11^th inning Gearrin (who is wearing my spellchecker on his own) was replaced by Christian Martinez which, again, does not upset me too much. Martinez is designated as our long reliever and two of the worst offensive teams in the league were about to begin the 11^th inning of a 3-3 game so why not throw Martinez in. Christian’s first two innings were uneventful as he pitched both perfectly using Petco Park to the best of his ability recording five of the six outs on fly balls. Then the circus came to town. The pitchers spot in the line-up came up to bat in the top of the 13^th with Nate McLouth on first base, rather than pinch hit David Ross for him and allow Mac to rest Gonzalez allowed Martinez to try and bunt the runner up. Christian bunted into a force out of McLouth at second and nearly had himself doubled off but made it to first in time. The very next hitter Martinez completed his goal to be involved in a double play as he wandered to far from first on a Martin Prado fly out to right field and Chris Denorfia took great pleasure in doubling off the Braves pitcher. This lead to Martinez pitching the bottom of the 13^th where he recorded one out before walking Nick Hundley and receiving a visit on the mound. You would have thought this would be a visit to replace him and use Kimbrel or even Jairo Asencio but no, I don’t know whether the visit to see if Martinez was having fun or what he would like for dinner but he stayed in the game to pitch to Ryan Ludwick who quickly deposited the ball over the left field wall.

At my count that’s at least five times that using Kimbrel would have been a better choice that the one the was actually made, unfortunately Kembo got to enjoy an evening reclining in the bullpen seats rather than do anything quite as exerting as his job. If the bullpen is managed like this the rest of the season Kimbrel might not get all that many save opportunities.

Dress Down Day

It’s Friday and everyone’s loosened their ties a little, maybe even worn jeans instead of dress pants into the office and, when I sat down to write this little old blog, I kind of had that Friday feeling and thought I’d just go with. This might end up being purely stream of conscious and might not even make that much sense but I just fancied writing something a little more relaxed, so here we go.

Imagine if there were a 21-year-old guy at a premium offensive position in his second big league season who hit exactly .300 in his rookie season and was now hitting .375 with a .398 OBP and a .513 slugging percentage while playing improved defense at one of the most important defensive positions. Wouldn’t you think there would be regular tributes to his immense talents and his incredible long term potential? Well we have the player in the Cubs Starlin Castro but, as yet, he hasn’t been getting the kind of pub his numbers deserve and it seems somewhat mystifying. In his rookie season Castro had 506 plate appearances and put up a line of .300/.347/.408 while the NL Rookie of the Year, the Giants Buster Posey, had a slash line that read .305/.357/.505. As you can see the only drastically distinguishable talent is Posey’s power while the San Francisco catcher had 63 less plate appearances than Chicago shortstop. The intriguing thing to begin this season is that, although it is around 20 games into the season, Castro has not had a precipitous drop in production like other players that started hot (see Adam Lind). Looking at the advanced stats Castro’s BABIP is inflated which would usually indicate an impending offensive recession, the difference with the 21 year old is his career BABIP, including the Minor Leagues, is about 50 points above league average meaning that this might just be the way he hits. I just thought it was really weird that Castro isn’t being touted for all kinds of accolades but, whether it’s because he’s playing for an unreadable Cubs team or not, there doesn’t seem to be much hype around a projectable young player.

There are three very interesting young pitchers in the AL (I’m not including the Oakland A’s who have three on their own) who all profile as front of the rotation starters but have very different profiles. Michael Pineda has built up a lot of hype for himself with his power stuff and gigantic frame and has been equally dynamic in his first taste of the Major League mound. His mid to upper 90’s fastball has generated a 7.45 strikeout per nine innings rate which is interestingly the lowest it has been in his career, in fact in three minor league seasons this never dipped below 8 K/9 and peaked at 10.97 in any substantial sample size. The problem is that thanks to the Mariners bringing Pineda up early this year they denied him a chance to develop a genuine off speed pitch to get out the tough lefties he will face. Because of this lack of top notch secondary stuff Pineda could get shelled a couple of time with lefty heavy line-ups sitting on his fastball, and this brings about all kind of questions about the Seattle organisation and the real need to have Pineda up now but that’s for an entire different book...sorry...blog. The most experienced of the three (meaning he pitched in the big leagues last year) is the Blue Jays Kyle Drabek, the son of former Pirate Doug. Drabek moved north of the border as the centrepiece in the Roy Halladay deal and is a genuine centrepiece prospect. In 3 starts last season Drabek put up a 4.76 ERA but with a 3.48 xFIP, relying on his tailing fastball and sharp breaking ball he has improved his stirkeouts per nine innings and has a respectable 3.00 ERA accompanied by a worrying 4.35 xFIP. I have tried to see as much of Drabek as possible despite his best efforts to evade me, a lot of the time he looks like a young pitcher building up his durability as, for the first five or six innings, he looks dominant but when he tires he tires very quickly and gets fly ball happy. Whether Drabek becomes a decent Halladay impersonator is unlikely but if he can keep up his early season form his calling card could be his consistency. After thinking about it a little I actually think that, of this trio, Orioles lefty Zach Britton could have the best career because, at 23, he has a well developed arsenal including a devastating sinker that has produced 56.7% ground ball outs. He also has good secondary stuff including a slider that, when it’s working, can really throw hitter but his sinker will be his money maker. It is a sustainable pitch that really only improves the more he will throw it and more he learns about the art of pitching. While he doesn’t have the workhorse build of Derek Lowe his repertoire is incredibly similar and he is in a rotation a lot earlier in his career than D-Lowe and has landed in a good educational environment. It’s not like Lowe has a bad career either.

Quick Braves footnote about last night’s disheartening walk off loss to the Dodgers. I felt sick watching it and hope that Craig Kimbrel was taken to the metaphorical woodshed for not backing up home plate in the bottom of the ninth.

High Performance

Braves Beat- I will be the first person to admit that Brian McCann is one of my favourite players in baseball, although I feel a slight pang of disappointment every time he swings over the top of a breaking ball on a 2 strike count. Prior to the season there was a rush of writers scrambling to write the next piece about how this was now Brian’s team, how he was now the leader and his intangibles were an unappreciated part of Mac’s game, well maybe all that ink had a point. McCann has exploded these first two weeks of the season in a way that no one expected, in the 17 games Heap has played he has put up a monstrous .356 average with a .433 OBP while only hitting two home runs. His BABIP of .422 suggests that he is going to recede very soon to a more human level of performance but what his first 67 plate appearances has given us is the opportunity to really appreciate how good the Braves catcher is. McCann was projected to hit between .280 and .295 this season with around 20 home runs and will probably do just that but, especially with Joe Mauer heading to the DL with bizarre leg problems, Braves fans should always keep in mind how lucky we’ve all been having Mac behind the plate for the last six years and at least the next three.

So Fredi made his line-up change and moved Jason Heyward up to the second spot and dropped Nate McLouth all the way down to eighth in the order and it has worked to perfection...almost. Since he made the move one outfielder has gone 4-for-8 with a walk while the other has gone 0-for-9 with no walks. Little guessing game which is Jason Heyward and which is Nate McLouth? Well apparently McLouth is a .500 hitter when in the eighth hole while Heyward is barely a Major League player in the 2 hole. The ironic thing is that at the bottom of the order McLouth should see less hittable pitches than hitting in front of Chipper but he seems to be doing more with worse pitches. Two games is almost impossible to call a sample size but the unusual immediate effect caught my eye.

The Braves scored eight runs in the ninth inning last night against the Dodgers to make a pitching duel into a laugher, however the question I found myself asking was what is the worth of that kind of outburst in a game like that? Probably not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things unless the Braves can make this kind of offense on a more consistent basis. Hopefully that ninth inning will spark the bats the way the offensive surge unlike the 10 runs in Washington did.

Derek Lowe looks to back up last night’s 10-1 win tonight and get the West Coast trip really going in the Braves favour, however Lowe will be going on short rest in another display of his unselfishness and value to the team. Because of the rain out on Friday night Lowe pitched Sunday and it was him or Jair Jurrjens going on short rest or some roster fiddling would have to take place. Much like the end of last year Lowe bit the bullet and actually seemed to relish the opportunity, something refreshing to see in a supposed ace. The only real reason I mention this is because I, like most other fans, gave D-Lowe no end of criticism when he was struggling last year and feel I only have to be fair now he’s finding success.

Ball Four

1. 1. Josh Johnson is stupid good! It seems that Johnson carries a no-hit bid into the later innings of almost every start he is making this year going closest in Atlanta when Freddie Freeman broke up a no-no effort with a double in the eighth. In his four starts this season Johnson is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA, he has pitched 27 innings across those four starts giving up only 10 hits, 3 earned runs while striking out 27 and posting a WHIP of 0.59. JJ was one of the trendy picks to win the Cy Young at the beginning of the year and is already putting up the second best ERA in the Majors behind only Gio Gonzalez of the A’s. He also happens to be one of the most enjoyable pitchers to watch in the big leagues thanks to the speed he works and his power strikeout stuff.

2. 2. In the wake of Johnson’s 2-hit 7 inning effort Brett Anderson gave an late night cap against the Boston Red Sox that could very possibly be even better than JJ’s. In 8 innings against the BoSox Anderson gave up only four hits and one walk while allowing no runs and striking out 8 Sox. There was a lot of press given to his team mates Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez and, mainly because of the occasional injury Anderson was somehow overlooked in the A’s rotation. Let’s remember quickly he is a 23-year-old in his third year in the big leagues who has a career ERA of 3.40 and put up a 2.80 mark in 19 starts last year. Like Johnson the A’s lefty is a thrill to watch pitch and should front this very good young rotation.

3. 3. I don’t expect the Royals or Indians to win anything close to 50% of their games but, despite this being April, this could be the two teams moment in the sun and they should get the coverage they might not get later in the year. They are currently in the midst of a series for the top spot in the AL central and it has so far been a wonderful series. Monday night saw a 10 inning game that the Indians managed to steal 7-3 thanks to a four run tenth. Last night the teams played out a dramatic 5-4 game in which both teams raked up 9 hits apiece. They currently have a combined record of 23-11 and are currently two of the most entertaining teams to watch in the league and could remain interesting as their respective influx of top prospects arrive. Credit to Alex Gordon who is hitting .361 and has a 13 game hit streak going after many began speculating he had become a Brandon Wood sized bust.

4. 4. Jake Peavy left a rehab start at Double-A Birmingham after throwing only 15 pitches complaining of irritation in his shoulder, an MRI back in Chicago proved there was nothing serious to worry about and he will not begin a program of anti-inflammatory drugs with a view to throwing again three days into the six day program. Any issue with Jake Peavy’s shoulder is a shame for any baseball fan, especially me with my strange obsession with pitching (more on that at a later date), is that we are being deprived the opportunity to see one of the premier pitches of our time in his peak years. A real shame.

What to Watch: Derek Lowe on short rest could either be a triumph or an adventure. Also any chance to see Jered Weaver pitch at the moment is worth taking especially in a divisional rubber game against the Texas Rangers.

A Start, An End and All the In Betweens

Braves Beat- Like team mate Tommy Hanson the Braves ace Tim Hudson has also struggled in the early innings of games this year but, unlike Hanson, more often than not Hudson has steadied the ship and produced highly effective and even brilliant outings. Unfortunately for Huddy his stretch of survival ended late last night (well actually I was waking up when Jonathon Broxton was trying to give up a second Dodger game in a row, one of the bi-products of following baseball in England). Hudson did last 6 innings, continuing his streak in 2011 of lasting 6 in all of his starts, but gave up four runs on six hits and two walks. This is the second start in a row Hudson has given up more than four runs, something he did only once last year. There was widespread acceptance that Hudson would regress this year given that his FIP and xFIP were both nearly a run higher than his ERA, this means that several starts like this shouldn’t come as a surprise or of concern to Braves fans.

Reassuringly for those Braves fans was the two hit performance of Dan Uggla last night who went 2-for-4 with a double, stolen base and a run scored. This raised the Braves new slugger’s batting average to a monstrous .197. All joking aside this could be a huge breakthrough for Dan who only had one multi-hit game previous to last night and his only previous stolen base attempt saw him bounce off the bag and be tagged out. Hopefully a couple of hits for Dan last night will get him on the kind of role a successful Braves team needs. The other big note from last night’s line-up was Fredi sticking with Jason Heyward hitting second in the order even with Nate McLouth in the order. Heyward didn’t have the kind of explosion his supporters were hoping for but hopefully the order with Martin hitting lead off, Heyward second and McLouth eighth will be will get the sputtering offence into the rhythm it has so far lacked.

Peter Moylan landed on the 15-Day DL with what has been discovered to be a bulging disc in his back, a similar problem to the one he experienced in 2001 and 2003 although Moylan feels this time it is less serious to the previous pains that resulted in surgery in ’03. The Braves medical staff will reassess the right-hander in two weeks and see how his back is then; until he is able to be revaluated the Braves are unsure as what Moylan will be able to do. Peter’s 4.15 ERA belied his importance in the early part of the season to the Braves bullpen but anyone who saw his two strikeouts on Thursday night against the Marlins should appreciate the role the Aussie plays.

Ball Four

1. The battles of the West were both somewhat less competitive than I and the rest of the baseball watching world were hoping for them to be but they produced two very different types of pitching performances that were equally effective. In the launching pad of Coors Field the Giants ace Tim Lincecum dominated one of the hottest line-ups in baseball in a performance to match ‘The Freak’s’ best. In 7.2 innings Lincecum gave up three hits and one run after carrying a no-hitter into the seventh while striking out 10 Rockies. With all the talk of the Phillies Fab Four people seemed to somehow forget the brilliance of the Giants Championship winning rotation that Lincecum fronts and led his team to an 8-1 victory. While Lincecum was spinning a mile high masterpiece CJ Wilson was pitching a similarly effective game while missing far fewer bats. Wilson lasted seven innings against the hot Angels and gave up ten hits somehow allowing only one run. The 9 strikeouts Wilson piled up helped him survive what could have been a rough outing while the Angels going 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. The 7-1 win the Rangers produced against the Angels broke LA’s five game winning streak and gets the Rangers back to winning ways after losing their series in New York.

2. The AL East produced two outstanding pitching performances yesterday that reminded me why I had both the Rays and Red Sox winning more than 90 games. Those lucky enough to live in LA, San Francisco or anywhere West of the Rocky mountains were about to enjoy some Patriots Day baseball with breakfast while 11 Eastern Time is the most accessible time I have ever experienced watching a game here. It appears that Daisuke Matsuzaka also enjoys an early matinee as he produced his best performance of the year, maybe even longer. Dice-K went 7 innings against the Blue Jays giving up only 1 hit and no runs while throwing only 89 pitches, a sharp comparison to his two earlier starts when he took 96 pitches to get through 5 innings in his first start and 47 to get through 2 in his second. The performance of the Japanese righty combined with the offensive surge of Jed Lowrie has moved the Sox back to 5-10 and saw them win consecutive games for the first time this year. In Tampa David Price was even better than his Bostonian counterpart. Price pitched 8 innings against the Chicago White Sox allowing only six base runners on four hits and two walks while striking out nine Sox. Price has been quietly improving since his rocky beginning to the season and with last night’s performance levelled his record at 2-2 and lowered his ERA to an impressive 2.83 mark. The difference between these two performances to me is that this should be an admired one-off by Dice-K and something closer to Price’s true level of performance.

3. Tonight sees the return to the mound of Ubaldo Jimenez who, thanks to a cut cuticle has not pitched since giving up six runs in six innings on Opening Day. Whilst 2011 has begun significantly led impressively for Ubaldo than 2010 when he went 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his first five starts he is re-joining a team that currently shares the best record in the early stages of the season. Jimenez will face the San Francisco Giants who he has tangled with intermittently at important stages of his career. He currently sports a 5-5 record against the defending World Series champions with an impressive 3.13 ERA. He hooks up tonight with Jonathon Sanchez who, like Ubaldo, also has a no-hitter in his not so distant past.

4. One of the best stories coming out of Spring Training was Rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus winning the second base job for the New York Mets. After 14 games and 37 At-Bats the feel good story seems to be over. Today the Mets announced they were designating Emaus for assignment after he hit .162 in the two weeks he lasted in the New York line-up before seemingly being replaced by Daniel Murphy. Thanks to the complexities of some of baseballs inner workings Emaus shouldn’t go investing in any real estate anywhere any time soon. The Mets must first pass him through Rule 5 waivers before offering him back to Toronto for half the amount they paid for him, if they wish to keep him they must work out a trade with Jays although that seems unlikely. I was personally really happy to see a guy like Emaus getting a shot at the big leagues and I will be a little sad to see him go wherever he goes and hopefully he can build a Major League career for himself.

Ball Four: Pitching and Equality

Braves Beat- The Braves wrapped up the recent home stand with a series win over the New York Mets behind the strong pitching during Saturdays double header. Derek Lowe was good once again throwing 6 innings while giving up 5 hits and 2 runs, D-Lowe levelled his season record at 2-2 and further solidified his 1.82 ERA. The Braves rode that outing and four solo home runs by Alex Gonzalez (2) Chipper and Freddie Freeman to a 4-2 win capped by Craig Kimbrel’s fourth save of the season. The performance Lowe gave to the Turner Field crowd was better later in the same evening by the returning Jair Jurrjens circa 2009. After spending a year tearing the entire right side of his body JJ returned the Turner Field mound after giving everyone a fright with another trip to the DL to protect his strained oblique muscle, an injury that seems to be already forgotten. Jurrjens spun a 7 inning, 2 hit gem throwing exactly 100 pitches and walked only 1 batter. Multi-hit games from Martin Prado, Chipper and Eric Hinske gave JJ and the ‘pen all the support they needed as George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink struck out 5 of the 6 batter they faced.

Unfortunately for the Bravos Tommy Hanson couldn’t finish off the teams first sweep of the year as he continued his early game struggles, giving up two runs on three hits in the first innings. When that first inning finally finished Hanson was dominant despite only working five innings Tommy struck out nine Mets. The three runs Hanson gave up proved enough for the Mets to snap their seven game losing streak and see the Braves offense sleep its way through another Sunday afternoon. Worryingly for Braves fans we may have another elite pitcher named Tom that struggles in the early innings, the big challenge for Tommy Hanson will be to improve his efficiency. The 3.2 innings against the Nationals took him 68 pitches, the 5.1 innings against the Brewers took 89 and after 5 innings on Sunday he was 97. Whether or not Tommy can improve his efficiency will ultimately prove how intelligent a pitcher he is and will be.

Ball Four

1. The Oakland A’s and their young ace Trevor Cahill are positioning themselves for the kind of pitching-led challenge they planned all winter. Cahill turned in his best performance of the young season yesterday striking out 9 Detroit Tigers over 8 innings that included only 4 hits and a single run. The Athletics pitching staff is already setting the best ERA mark in the majors with a team 2.59 mark. The need to place Dallas Braden on the DL today will cause a slight weakness but could open up a starting spot for righty prospect Tyson Ross to make Braden’s next scheduled start. Another interesting note is that four of the top five ERA’s in the Major’s a being set by American League teams and the top three marks by three AL West teams in the A’s, Angels and Rangers.

2. Felix Hernandez suffered his second consecutive poor start and now has a 4.33 ERA in his four starts. There a plenty of reasons for Felix to be struggling mentally but almost none for him to be struggling physically. The losing mentality in Seattle and ineptness of his offense would bore and frustrate the best human being and with the promotion of Michael Pineda he suddenly has a challenger to his crown. There have been whisperings that the time may be coming for the Mariners to trade the 2010 AL Cy Young winner and the team’s trading of Cliff Lee proves they are will to deal a quality pitcher but the question is how tradable is King Felix? His current contract has him tied in until 2014 with salaries of $10 million this year, $18.5 million in 2012, $19.5 million in 2013 and finally $20 million in 2014. There are maybe only 3 or 4 teams in baseball that could afford the contract but of those teams maybe only 1 or 2 have the pieces to make the trade happen. Of course it is only two starts.

3. The NL West was widely predicted to be one of the tightest races in baseball with three very good teams as well as the wild-card Padres, Sunday proved how close the division truly could be. All five teams were involved in games decided in the eighth inning or later Sunday in all kinds of games ranging from slugfests to pitching duals. The most entertaining game was between two division rivals in the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants who tangled in a 12 inning battle that ended when Stephen Drew singled in Justin Upton to give the D’Backs a deserved win. The importance of Upton and Drew to the Arizona team was on full display in this win as they combined for four of the D’Backs 11 hits including Drew’s game winner. The Padres, despite being the worst hitting team in the National League they managed to piece together a four run eighth inning against the Houston Astros to record an 8-6 win. The lack of production from the Padres line-up should mean that there are plenty of close games in the Padres future but most probably won’t turner out as well as this one. The Dodgers got an outstanding performance from Chad Billingsley who pitched 8 innings, giving up only 2 hits and striking out 11. This performance only makes Billingsley inconsistencies even more frustrating knowing how great he came be. It did look like the Dodgers would waste this effort as Jonathon Broxton gave up the go ahead run the top ninth setting up the Cardinals for an unlikely win. The two best hitters in the LA line-up had different ideas; Andre Ethier led off the ninth with a double before Matt Kemp sent a Ryan Franklin offering over the center field fence for a thrilling Dodger win. Whilst all this was going on the Rockies were continuing their Major League best start to the season with an eighth inning charge over the Chicago Cubs as, like the Padres, the Rockies put up four runs in the eighth and rode it to their 12^th victory. This division seems to be even tighter and balanced than anyone imagined

4. Let’s do a little bit of college ball to round out today given some huge series this weekend. The defending national champion South Carolina Gamecocks knocked off the number 1 Vanderbilt Commodores winning 2 of the 3 games in Columbia this weekend. The big draft names in the series were Vandy RHP Sonny Gray who gave up three runs and 11 hits in 7.2 innings while striking out 7 including Gamecock outfielder Jackie Bradley jr who went 3-for-14 this weekend and now has a .278 average on the year. Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon went 2-9 and now has a .349 average and is re-establishing himself as a top draft prospect while UCLA’s Gerrit Cole struggled a little pitching 8 innings, giving up 5 runs but striking out 11. Once again he was outperformed by teammate Trevor Bauer who threw a complete game four-hit shut-out while striking out 13 and lowering his ERA to 1.47. This is a deep draft and with some performances it is getting deeper.

What to Watch

The beginning of two huge series on the West coast with the Giants going to Colorado with both teams looking to make an early statement while the Angels visit the Texas Rangers as both attempt to make their mark of the AL West.

Ball Four: Second Sunday

The second Sunday in the baseball felt very like a Sunday with a lot of the fireworks being used up Saturday. I watched two full games and neither was particularly inspiring unfortunately but having spent the better part of my Sunday evening staring at them it’s only far I write them up.

Phillies @ Braves

The two teams predicted by many to compete for the NL East crown concluded their early season series in Atlanta with a 3-0 Philadelphia win meaning they take the first series from the Braves and pushed their record to a National League best 7-2. After the Braves got off to a fast start Friday night beating up on Cliff Lee for a 6-3 win behind Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones, Saturday was less successful for the Braves as the Philly offense teed off on Brandon Beachy and the Braves bullpen for a convincing 10-2 victory that set up the Sunday game as a compelling rubber match. Nobody thought to inform the Braves offense that, in order to be competitive, they needed to score runs, a worrying problem that was on display too often in 2010. Shane Victorino continued to swing the bat well finishing the Braves series 7-for-13 with 5 runs scored; he showed how important he is leading off for this Philadelphia team whose offense was questioned in the offseason. After the Phil’s scored in the first inning of each of the two previous games the Braves kept them off the board this time thanks to a trademark Derek Lowe double play ball and then another nice play to get Jimmy Rollins by Alex Gonzalez.

The Philadelphia line-up provided one interesting titbit by starting Michael Martinez at second base they increased the number of Rule 5 Draft picks playing second base in the NL East to three. Dan Uggla was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001 before they didn’t add him to their 40-man roster in 2005 when he was subsequently chosen in the Rule 5 draft by the Florida Marlins. Uggla is obviously now with the Braves. Brad Emaus was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2007 before the New York Mets drafted him in the 2010 Rule 5 and giving him the starting job on Opening Day. They were then joined by Martinez who the Phillies chose in the same draft the Mets took Emaus, Martinez signed with the Nationals organisation in 2006.

After being beaten around by Emaus’ Mets in his first start of the season Cole Hamels bounced back and was absolutely filthy in his second outing, not allowing a hit until the fourth inning and finishing his seven innings of work only giving up four hits while striking out seven. Tom Glavine, who was calling the game for Fox Sports South, pointed out that Hamels was hitting 95 in the first inning which gave him confidence in it while being able to use his other pitched as well. Hamels made the Braves best hitter in Martin Prado look very bad on two occasions, striking him out in the fourth and sixth and leaving Martin looking really overmatched on both occasions.

Victorino scored the first two runs for the Phillies as he manufactured the first run in the fourth inning, hitting a single before going first to third on a Placido Polanco single and scoring on Jimmy Rollins’ double play ground out. He then used his power to score the second run in the seventh when he crushed an inside fastball deep into the right field seats. After the abuse the Braves bullpen took on Saturday Fredi Gonzalez went to young reliable on Sunday pitching Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel in the 8^th and 9^th innings. Venters looked dominant recording three ground ball outs in his inning of work before Kimbrel and Jason Heyward combined to allow Jimmy Rollins to score an unearned run in the ninth inning.

It just felt too much like a lazy Sunday for the Braves as they just never got anything going and looked unfocused at the plate recording first pitch outs with runners in scoring position far too often. The Phillies gave us a preview of what could be with the quality pitching and getting enough offense for the win. This series is not a sign of things to come or even an early season measuring stick just the first round of what will be a slugfest.

Indians @ Mariners

With the Indians currently leading their division and the Mariners poised to begin their annual decline into insignificance I thought it would be a good time to see these two teams. The pitching match-up was hardly marquee with Eric Bedard going for the Mariners against the Indians Josh Tomlin, who had made a very good start against the Boston Red Sox earlier in the week. Eric Bedard was truly horrible in the four innings he ended up working, he lacked control in all four but not to the point of walking people. For someone who was throwing in the high eighties and low nineties Bedard needed to work the bottom of the strike zone and hit the corners, it simply wasn’t happening as he gave up a first inning home run to Asdrubal Cabrera followed by a squib single to Shin-Soo Choo and a towering double to Shelly Duncan on a 75 mph breaking ball left at the letters that would have been a home run in any other ballpark. In the second inning it looked like Bedard might actually get things under control as he found some sink on his change-up and looked a lot better against Matt LaPorta and Jack Hannahan before giving up consecutive double to Lou Marson and Michael Brantley that scored Marson. Brantley then scored when Asdrubal Cabrera singled but ended up being out at second base on a good heads up play by Mariners catcher Chris Gimenez.

Gimenez is a perfect example of where the Mariners currently are. The position of catcher is currently filled out on the M’s depth chart by Gimenez and Miguel Olivo, the former has a .163 career average while Olivo is nearly 33 years-old but coming off a career year at the Rockies paradise last year. When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee last year they had to choose between the Rangers package that had Justin Smoak as the centrepiece and the New York Yankees and their top prospect, catcher Jesus Montero. The Mariners chose Smoak at a position that was already filled by Major League average Casey Kotchman. Even if the Mariners had received Gary Sanchez or Austin Romine instead of Montero they could have quality offense at a premium position, they don’t and seeing Gimenez come in the lack of offense at that position in such a weak line-up is just much more pronounced.

Bedard left the game after four innings in which he gave up six runs and threw 83 pitches, is the Mariners are going to do anything like compete they need more from their starting pitching because the bullpen they have isn’t deep or strong enough to make up the deficiency like it did yesterday. Of the 10 hits Bedard gave up 6 were for extra bases including 2 home runs in as ineffective a start as you’re likely to see. Tomlin on the other hand continued his good start to the season with 6.2 strong innings allowing only 3 hits and 3 runs, a number somewhat skewed by one bad pitch to Ryan Langerhans that resulted in a two run homer. Chad Durbin was awful allowing a home run and a single to the two hitters he faced without getting anyone out. Despite the small offensive surge that saw the Mariners score three runs in two batters it never felt like they were actually going to come back and were eventually shut down by a good back end of the Indians bullpen.

Neither of these teams seems set to compete, despite the Indians good start they just don’t match up to the White Sox, Twins or Tigers and will fall off quite quickly one would expect. However they still have some potential excitement with Choo and Carlos Santana as well as some intriguing prospects. The Mariners on the other hand have so little to get excited about outside of Felix Hernandez. They still have good players in Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez but, especially for Ichiro, they are models of consistency and that isn’t sexy. Ichiro is one of the best players in the game still but he has become something of a classic painting, you go to admire and appreciate and rarely get excited about.

Ball Four

1. Gordon Beckham is going to have a great season. The first week of the season has given White Sox fans and the wider baseball public a glimpse into what Beckham should become. He is hitting .333 with two home runs and a .400 OBP and made two dazzling defensive plays yesterday that show his improvement in the field. Beckham could be on the cusp of establishing himself as the All-Star calibre player the White Sox imagined.

2. Jered Weaver continued his dominant start to the year Sunday as he moved to 3-0 with a career high 15 strikeouts. He has compiled 20.2 innings in 3 starts, given up 9 hits and 9 walks while striking out 27 and putting up a 0.87 ERA.

3. The retirement of Manny Ramierez and conclusion of the Barry Bonds trial will hopefully begin to bring to an end the sordid steroid stories in baseball. Manny was the last high profile player to serve a ban, serving 50 games last year, and may have been headed for more bench time that resulted in his retirement. The lack of fanfare that Manny has received as he slinks off into the shadows seems to reflect baseballs attitude to steroid users.

4. The Red Sox and Rays recorded their first wins of the season amid reports the world was ending in Massachusetts. The Sox even saw fit to add to their win total last night beating the Yankees for the second time in three days last night thanks to Josh Beckett going all 2007 on the Yanks. The Red Sox will most likely push on from this point and make the charge to October everyone has predicted; the Rays need to be more concerned especially with Evan Longoria on the DL. A weak line-up has been exposed even more by a rotation that appears to have regressed and an underachieving bullpen. This is simply not the same Rays team in spirit, mentality or achievement.

Ball Four

The first full weekend of Major League Baseball is over and it was about as good as could have possibly been hoped. There has been a good mix of great pitching, great hitting and great defence and we have seen some genuinely great games and interesting series. In true baseball spirit I thought it would only be right to begin a clichéd weekly piece looking back at the previous week and finding the four things I found most interesting it will probably change, as with everything on here I’m still trying stuff and finding out what works so bear with me for the first couple of weeks as I work out the best way to do this. Anyway let the umpire send you down to first as we look at ball four:

1. 1. Two of the premier pitching prospects in baseball made their debuts on back-to-back days over the weekend and turned in consecutive gems as Kyle Drabek and Zach Britton both earned their first Major League win. Drabek pitched seven innings of 1 hit 1 run ball against the Twins on Saturday after he carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He maintained good velocity on his fastball between 89-94 mph and good control while issuing only three walks. Britton also only gave up one run while pitching six innings in an emergency start after Brian Matusz went down with a side strain. Britton gave up three hits and three walks while striking out six.

2. 2. It began on Opening Day and has continued through the rest of the weekend with close games in almost every series. On Opening Day itself all five games played were decided by three runs or less with the Reds providing the most dramatic with a walk-off win in the ninth inning courtesy of Ramon Hernandez’s three-run homer. The second day of the season on Friday saw six of the eleven games decided by three runs or less. This pattern continued for the remainder of the weekend proving the Major League Baseball is indeed very competitive even at this point of the year.

3. 3. It’s way too early to worry about records for some of the more fancied teams. Mainly two of the three big guns in the AL East in the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are both 0-3 after being swept in their opening series’. The Red Sox were hammered down in Arlington by the Rangers thanks in large part because of some bad pitching while the Rays offense was shut down by the Baltimore Orioles in Tampa. The Milwaukee Brewers, many people’s pick to win the NL Central are also winless with a 0-4 record however 3 of those 4 games have been decided by two runs or fewer. The point is both teams have new additions and are still figuring out their new identities both teams will win lots of games, after all they still have 159 and 158 game left to play respectively. No time to reach for the red button.

4. 4. After the year of the pitcher in 2010 we have seen a power output of epic proportions with over 100 home runs being hit over the first five days of the season. Leading the way is the Texas Rangers with 13 and the New York Yankees with 11. The offensive output hasn’t however affected the quality of the games mainly due to their competitive nature. Expect to see the power reduce as teams adjust and pitchers get into the swing of pitching.

We are under a week into the season and already it feels like a lot has happened with a lot of young players producing and MVP calibre players living up to their billing. We’ve got six months of this to enjoy just think on that!

2011 Quick Fire Predictions

It’s not really worthwhile having a blog unless you have an opinion so these are my unprepared quick fire picks for the upcoming baseball season.

NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants

AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

AL MVP: Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

NL West Champ: San Francisco Giants

NL Central Champ: Cincinnati Reds

NL East Champ: Atlanta Braves

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Champion: Philadelphia Phillies

AL West Champ: Oakland A’s

AL Central Champ: Chicago White Sox

AL East Champ: Boston Red Sox

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox

World Series Champion: Philadelphia Phillies

PLAY BALL!!!!!

Major League Major Preview: The NL East

NL East

When Cliff Lee shunned bigger money in Texas and New York to sign where he was truly happy in Philadelphia everyone thought the NL East was all sealed up. As time as gone on over the Spring the perception has changed somewhat, the Phillies have hit some injuries with both their All-Star second baseman and closer set for the DL. While the Phillies and Braves are set to battle it out for the division the Marlins remained competitive despite giving up their power hitting second baseman to a division rival, the Nationals have shown they aren’t afraid to spend money along with an obscene two years of draft talent and the Mets seem to finally be approaching the end of their futility.

Philadelphia Phillies

Without doubt the Phillies possess the best rotation in baseball and the best since possibly the mid-90’s Braves rotation. The success experienced by Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels for the duration of 2010 gave a glimpse of what a full season of this rotation can provide, especially now that Roy Oswalt is bedded into his surroundings and Cliff Lee is back where he feels comfortable. While the pitching has improved the offense has regressed with both the loss of Jayson Werth and the injury to Chase Utley. Despite the size of Citizens Bank Park don’t expect many runs to be scored there.

Star- Roy Halladay. The best pitcher in baseball Halladay built himself a legend in his first season in Philly. A perfect game and postseason no-hitter in the bag from 2010 the comfort Halladay should feel from his second season as Philadelphia’s ace could potentially make him better. He won the NL Cy Young with a 21-10 record with a sparkling 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 250.2 innings.

Top Prospect- Domonic Brown OF. A potentially five-tool player Brown has incredible physically possessing a body that has been compared to a young Barry Bonds or Darryl Strawberry. Brown had the opportunity to take the opening right field job vacated by Jayson Werth but constant tinkering with his swing that resulted in a poor Spring Training that was ultimately ended by a broken knuckle. Brown should be back in the Majors this year but looked like he needs more Minor League seasoning.

Win Total- 92. The rotation guarantees that this will be an elite team but the potentially patchy offence could hurt the Phil’s.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves come off their first postseason appearance since 2005 with an improved line-up thanks mostly to the offseason theft of Dan Uggla. General Manager Frank Wren traded utility infielder Omar Infante and lefty reliever Mike Dunn to the Florida Marlins for Uggla who has hit thirty home runs in each of the last four seasons. If they can get a full season out of Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Jason Heyward the Braves hope to have a potentially explosive offence. The rotation includes 2010 comeback player of the year Tim Hudson and one of the potential breakout players of 2011 in Tommy Hanson and could very easily go toe-to-toe with the mighty Phillies staff.

Star- Brian McCann. It seems that finally this has become Brian McCann’s team. The 27-year-old catcher begins his seventh Major League season and will hope to bounce back from what has been two years of eye problem resulting in reduced production. Expect his average to return closer to his career mark and for another 20 homer season. His presence in the locker room also deserves praise for his growth.

Top Prospect- Julio Teheran RHP. The top pitching prospect in baseball Teheran is still a couple of years away from the big leagues: he will begin 2011 as a 20-year-old. With three above average pitches and a slight build he has been compared to Pedro Martinez but some supporters claim he is more advanced at that age. Likely to split 2011 between AA and AAA he has the stuff to challenge Tommy Hanson for the role of staff ace.

Win Total- 93. Homerism I hear you say? Maybe some rose color glasses affect this number a tiny bit but I do truly believe the Braves have the team to beat out the Phillies in the division.

Florida Marlins

Expect the Marlins to be exactly what they have been for the majority of the last decade: a .500 wins with young talent but not enough budget to push them over the top. Thanks to their financial restraints they traded away the power bat of Dan Uggla for two affordable serviceable Major League players. Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez give the Marlins a couple of serious stars but the line-up seems to be a couple of years away from genuine contention despite their talent. This could still be a breakout season for young players like Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison while the signing of Javier Vazquez could either be a great pick-up or a huge problem for the Marlins.

Star- Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez produced at an All-Star level once again in 2010 hitting .300 with 21 home runs and a .378 OBP. His season last year was overshadowed by his perceived role in the firing of former manager Fredi Gonzalez. After booting a ball into left field Hanley proceeded to loaf after it allowing runners to advance, after being benched he then attempted to show Gonzalez up in the media with his comments. Whether he actually had a role in Jeffrey Loria firing Fredi is not clear but in this case perception meant as much as fact.

Top Prospect- Matt Dominguez 3B. One of the best defensive players in the Minor Leagues Dominguez could fill the hot corner for almost any Major League team; he has some questions to answer at the plate however. He will begin the year at triple-A and look to prove himself against higher level pitching. His average Major League could translate into plenty of double in the cavernous Sun Life Stadium.

Win Total- 82. A slight improvement from last year but only slight, this is not just a team but an entire organisation built to play .500 ball.

New York Mets

The firing of Jerry Manuel and movement of Omar Minaya has got Mets fans hoping for a future much brighter than the last two decades. While this year should be another poor one the organisation is shaping up to make improvements in 2012 and beyond. The loss of Johan Santana hurts but with the likelihood of contending being small they have no reason to rush him and would prefer to see Santana healthy in 2012 than pitching in 2011. Ike Davis provided some highlights in a sold rookie campaign while the big free agent pick-up in Jason Bay did not have the effect the front office was hoping for.

Star- David Wright. After suffering through a horrendous concussion in 2009 Wright bounced back in 2010 with what can be described as a very solid year. He hit .283 with 29 home runs while playing excellent defensive third base and further established himself as the best third baseman in the National League.

Top Prospect- Jenrry Mejia RHP. Mejia has been on the fast track since arriving in the Mets organisation back in 2007 but that looks to be coming to an end this year. After pitching at five levels of pro ball in 2010 Mejia may spend more time at the Triple-A level as the Mets attempt to see if he can be an effective starter. His current career high in innings is 81 and it remains to be seen if his raw stuff plays at the front of the rotation or back of the bullpen.

Win Total-77. Nobody expects this team to be good and a lot of pundits are expecting them to finish below the Nationals, it could very well happen.

Washington Nationals

The highest spending team in the NL East this year aren’t quite ready for the return on that investment but they are starting to blood some younger players that might be effective for them for a very long time. The huge free agent signing of Jayson Werth away from the division rival Phillies was a statement of intent by the Nationals but was offset by the losses of Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. The injury suffered by uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg put a major dampener on the end of 2010 but having Tommy John surgery at this point of his career might not be that bad for the 2009 number 1 pick.

Star- Ryan Zimmerman. If David Wright is the best second baseman in the NL than Zimmerman is a very close second to him and by far the superior defensive player. Zimmerman hit over .300 for the first time in his career in 2010 whilst also hitting 25 home runs in a line-up that didn’t proved him with much protection. Expect him to be even better this year, he has the potential to start in the All-Star game.

Top Prospect- Bryce Harper OF. If you haven’t heard of Bryce Harper then you probably shouldn’t be reading this blog. The power hitting 18-year-old out of the College of Southern Nevada has all the potential in the world to be one of the best players in baseball. His raw power is completely unmatched and he could 50 home runs on a regular basis when he arrives at the big league level. He still has plenty to learn and was baffled by off-speed and breaking pitches in Arizona Fall League but has plenty of time to learn his craft both at the plate and in the outfield.

Win Total- 73. The rotation leaves a lot to be desired and, outside of Zimmerman and Werth, the offense could be very patchy. Still a long way to go until this team reaches a competitive level.

Major League Major Preview: The AL East

The eastern divisions are both filled with great players and really good teams, both contain the favourites for the World Series and plenty of postseason experience. Most major broadcasters are accused of having an ‘eastern bias’ and both the NL and AL East are examples of why that might not be bad thing. Here’s why:

AL East

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox come off a year they considered a major disappointment despite winning 89 games. They have tried to right the perceived wrongs of 2010 by going out and getting the biggest free-agent who is not a pitcher and then trading for one of the five best first basemen in all of baseball. They will also receive full season from some crucial players that missed time in 2010 thanks to a variety of injuries, Terry Francona and Theo Epstein also hope that their expensively assembled pitching rotation will be more effective than it was for the majority of last year.

Star- Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia is one of those players that missed significant time in 2010 thanks to a broken foot. Despite only playing 75 games for the Sox the 2009 MVP still hit a respectable .288 with a .367 OBP and 12 home runs. With Chase Utley beginning the season on the DL Pedroia should use 2011 to solidify himself as the best second baseman in the Major Leagues.

Top Prospect- Jose Iglesias SS. Iglesias won’t light up any it up with the bat but what he lacks in hitting ability (it’s not much, he should be MLB average) he makes up for with his defensive ability. He has quick feet and hands along with a strong body which results in numerous webgems. He has hit .295 in barely one season of pro ball and, if he works on his plate discipline, could be a number 2 hitter and end the Red Sox inconsistency at short.

Win Total- 98. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make this club the best in baseball by quite a margin. The only potential hiccups will stem from either Josh Beckett or John Lackey struggling again.

New York Yankees

The Yankees weren’t quite the World Champions of 2009 thanks in large part to wildly erratic pitching. The acquisition of Javier Vazquez didn’t work as Brian Cashman and the Yankee front office hoped while the promotion of Phil Hughes from bullpen to rotation was one of the most successful roster moves in recent years. The Yankees missed out on all the big name free agents as, like the Rangers, they were blindsided by Cliff Lee’s decision to sign with the Phillies. It is easy to forget with all the coverage and melodrama that this is still the most successful franchise of our time, it just doesn’t feel like their year.

Star- It’s almost impossible to choose with the Yankees plethora of talent by special mention should be made of CC Sabathia. The workhorse ace almost single handily held together the Yankee rotation in 2010 and will be hoping that Aj Burnett and other back him up a little this year.

Top Prospect- Jesus Montero C. Montero has shown the Yankees brass that he can hit and has a bright future on one condition: he finds his best position. Many scouts feel Montero is too much of a liability to be an everyday player behind the plate but it is impossible to envision a 23-year-old DH. He will start 2011 in the minors working on his defense.

Win Total- 88. I expect the Yankees to be very similar to the 2010 Red Sox, still a superpower but one that loses the arms race to the other powerful teams in the AL East. Expect to see a major issue involving ownership hit the Yankees at some point this summer.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles were like a new team after Buck Showalter was named their new manager in July and had a far more successful second half as they went 34-25. The Orioles are still very much a developing team that is maybe 2 or 3 years away from reaching its full potential. The young crop of players are lead by 24-year-old lefty Brian Matusz who struggled some in his rookie year going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA but pitched a lot better than his record suggests. Their rotation includes four pitches 26-years and under and has another in the system, Zach Britton, that should make this one of the better rotations in the AL. The acquisitions of Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds improve the Baltimore offense to make them respectable without being competitive.

Star- Choose between Adam Jones or Matt Wieters depending on their 2011 seasons. Both are young players the Baltimore organisation believes but, especially Wieters, could approach the end of the big league clubs patience.

Top Prospect- Manny Machado SS. The number three pick in the 2010 draft that has outstanding hitting ability with five-tool potential. Machado showed great abilities as a contact hitter as he struck out only 3 times in 36 professional at-bats. Machado has been compared to Alex Rodriguez which is probably a little hopeful but expect for the young shortstop to make his share of All-Star games.

Win Total- 75. This is very much a work in progress for both Showalter and the Orioles and winning over 70 games should be viewed as a great achievement for them. Expect to see gradual improvement from Baltimore not a Tampa Bay like rise.

Tampa Bay Rays

It is not often a team loses its star player and entire bullpen and lives to tell the tale but the Rays should still be right in contention thanks to years of intelligent drafting and favourable trades. The loss of Carl Crawford is undoubtedly a big one and it will affect the Rays but the signing of Jonny Damon at least means he is replaced by an established Major Leaguer. Matt Garza was traded to the Chicago to make room in the rotation for phenom Jeremy Hellickson while also adding more top prospects to the Rays seeming endless supply.

Star- Evan Longoria. Longoria seemed to settle into who he will be for the rest of his career with the 2010 season, hitting .294 with a .372 OBP and 22 home runs. While he may not be the monster A-Rod like hitter that Tampa Bay fans would like he will still be one of the premier players at his position and a genuine leader for a young Rays team.

Top Prospect- Jeremy Hellickson RHP. Hellickson has already proven that he can pitch at the big league level with a small cameo at the end of 2010. In 10 games that included 4 starts the 23-year-old went 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 36 innings. Whilst he has four pitches that he can throw for strikes his most effective offering is a low-80’s change-up that gives him an effective weapon against lefties.

Win Total- 93. I think that despite losing some big pieces the Rays production line is so efficient now that they are affected significantly less than other teams. The three games lost on last year reflects Crawford leaving while Hellickson replacing Garza is a virtual wash.

Toronto Blue Jays

If there is one team in baseball that it is difficult to pigeon hole it is the Jays. They were one of the most surprising teams in the game last year, experiencing an almost unprecedented power surge that saw Jose Bautista hit over 50 home runs. They also produced some of the most intriguing young pitching talent that included Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and latterly Kyle Drabek. A lot of the Jays season rests on how Aaron Hill bounces back from a down year while a repeat of last years fireworks from Bautista seems unlikely.

Star- Jose Bautista. After six less than average big league seasons Bautista exploded as a 30-year-old hitting 54 home runs while playing 161 games. Bautista was an especially dangerous hitter at the Rogers Center where he hit .282 with 33 of those long balls. His career up until this point suggests that his 2010 season will be more of an aberration than a recurring thing but it vaulted Bautista to unprecedented heights.

Top Prospect- Kyle Drabek RHP. The son of former Major Leaguer Doug Drabek the 23-year-old righty will look to prove why the Blue Jays were finally willing to trade Roy Halladay. After dominating Double-A for 27 games last year Drabek jumped straight to the Major Leagues making his debut on September 15^th. While he wasn’t at his best at the end of a long season he still pitched to a quite respectable 4.76 ERA giving up three earned runs in each of his three starts. If Drabek can develop his cutter and change-up to go with a plus fastball and hammer curveball then he should be a top of the rotation talent in Toronto for quite a while.

Win Total- 85. This is perhaps one of my more optimistic estimates but I have some confidence in it anyway. I think the Jays rotation gives then the edge over most AL teams and should keep them competitive in the toughest division in baseball.